Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Sep 24?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 62° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 66° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 66° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 66–66° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 71° | 63° | 62° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 71° | 73° | 77° | — | 55° | — | — | 55–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 69° | 75° | 65° | — | 72° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 77° | 64° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 64° | 73° | 67° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 69° | 76° | 67° | 73° | 75° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 63° | 70° | 64° | 71° | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 66° | 58° | 66° | 57° | 64° | — | — | 57–66° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 66° | 54° | 64° | 59° | 59° | 66° | 66° | 54–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 65° | 66° | 62° | 61° | 65° | 67° | 61–67° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 66° | 64° | 63° | 69° | 65° | 65° | 63–69° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 66° | 64° | 67° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 64–69° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 65° | 65° | 66° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 65–69° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 68° | 67° | 64° | 70° | 69° | 66° | 66° | 64–70° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.