Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Sep 23?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 63° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 67° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 59° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 63° | 64° | — | 76° | — | — | 63–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 66° | 68° | 60° | — | 66° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 66° | 71° | 72° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 67° | 73° | 67° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–73° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 69° | 71° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 60° | 60° | 66° | 69° | 59° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 66° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 66° | — | — | 66–68° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 65° | 64° | 62° | 68° | 71° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 66° | 55° | 65° | 61° | 62° | 65° | 61° | 55–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 65° | 63° | 65° | 64° | 63° | 67° | 67° | 63–67° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 66° | 65° | 62° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 67° | 62–67° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 66° | 65° | 66° | 66° | 67° | 67° | 65–67° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 64° | 65° | 67° | 66° | 66° | 67° | 64–67° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 66° | 66° | 70° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 66–70° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.