Was the forecast right for New York on Sat Sep 19?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 67° to 76°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 69° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 81° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 74° | 68° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 68° | 69° | 76° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 67° | 65° | 74° | — | 68° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 72° | 82° | 66° | — | 67° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 66° | 89° | 72° | — | 83° | — | — | 66–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 73° | 71° | 69° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 78° | 73° | 76° | 79° | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 73° | 67° | 84° | 68° | 76° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 71° | 70° | 78° | 73° | 72° | — | 70–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 70° | 71° | 76° | 74° | 78° | 73° | 78° | 70–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 70° | 69° | 72° | 71° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 69–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 69° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 70° | 74° | 69–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 70° | 70° | 73° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 72° | 70–73° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 70° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 69° | 72° | 69–72° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 70° | 70° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 71° | 73° | 70–74° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.