Was the forecast right for New York on Mon Sep 14?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 69° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 75° against the NYC observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 71° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 76° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 73° | 69° | 86° | — | 79° | — | — | 69–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 75° | 82° | — | 92° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 90° | 66° | — | 90° | — | — | 66–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 85° | 68° | 77° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 71° | 86° | 77° | — | 95° | — | — | 71–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 74° | 83° | 95° | 77° | 88° | — | — | 74–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 78° | 83° | 81° | 84° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 74° | 73° | 81° | 68° | 85° | 76° | — | 68–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 73° | 74° | 86° | 76° | 90° | 89° | 84° | 73–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 73° | 77° | 75° | 70° | 83° | 75° | 78° | 70–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 74° | 76° | 77° | 70° | 76° | 74° | 82° | 70–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 74° | 74° | 75° | 73° | 78° | 74° | 78° | 73–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 74° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 74–78° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 75° | 75° | 72° | 76° | 78° | 75° | 76° | 72–78° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.