Was the forecast right for New York on Mon Aug 31?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
11 days out, 4 models put New York's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 72° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 78° against the NYC observations, with 0.08 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 72° | 82° | 79° | — | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 76° | 88° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 86° | 81° | 77° | 84° | 82° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 85° | 84° | 85° | 82° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 87° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 87° | — | — | 86–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 90° | 88° | 84° | 95° | 88° | 89° | 84–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 84° | 82° | 78° | 84° | 84° | 90° | 78–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 81° | 85° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 83° | 80–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 82° | 82° | 79° | 84° | 76° | 83° | 76–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 77° | 78° | 81° | 77° | 84° | 77° | 82° | 77–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 76° | 76° | 79° | 84° | 81° | 76° | 77° | 76–84° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.