Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Aug 27?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
7 days out, 5 models put New York's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 73° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 77° against the NYC observations, with 0.45 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. GEM ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-20 | 74° | 73° | 73° | 83° | 79° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 6d · 2026-08-21 | 76° | 79° | 79° | 74° | 85° | 82° | 81° | 74–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 77° | 80° | 77° | 81° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 77–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 78° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 84° | 79° | 83° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 80° | 77° | 82° | 82° | 79° | 78° | 77–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 84° | 81° | 81° | 79–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 78° | 80° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 78–83° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.