Was the forecast right for New York on Mon Aug 17?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 76° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 80° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.28 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 85° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 76° | 78° | 76° | — | 87° | — | — | 76–87° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 73° | 78° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 75° | 79° | 73° | — | 81° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 77° | 75° | — | 85° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 79° | 88° | 81° | — | 85° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 86° | 77° | 76° | 80° | 79° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 87° | 79° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 83° | 84° | 87° | 81° | 86° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 87° | 87° | 90° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 78° | 78–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 87° | 86° | 92° | 79° | 87° | 88° | 84° | 79–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 85° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 85–90° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 84° | 87° | 80° | 85° | 87° | 76° | 89° | 76–89° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 84° | 84° | 85° | 80° | 86° | 76° | 86° | 76–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 83° | 86° | 84° | 82° | 87° | 82° | 80° | 80–87° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.