Was the forecast right for New York on Sat Aug 15?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 70° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 82° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 80° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 80–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 70° | 85° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 85° | 78° | — | 83° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 76° | 82° | 78° | — | 78° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 78° | 70° | 83° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 78° | 83° | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 77° | 82° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 86° | 78° | 88° | 81° | 80° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 81° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 83° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 79° | 81° | 84° | 81° | 78° | 80° | 81° | 78–84° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 79° | 80° | 84° | 79° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 79–84° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 80° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 80–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 82° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 81–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 82° | 81° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 82° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 86° | 84° | 83° | 82–86° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.