Was the forecast right for New York on Mon Aug 10?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 85° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.14 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 83° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–83° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 91° | 91° | 90° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 86° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 87° | 86° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–87° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 89° | 95° | — | 92° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 93° | 85° | — | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 88° | 90° | 89° | 80° | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 89° | 89° | 85° | 95° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 90° | 92° | 90° | 86° | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 91° | 92° | 91° | 84° | 93° | 95° | 95° | 84–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 89° | 92° | 89° | 86° | 92° | 95° | 89° | 86–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 87° | 88° | 92° | 83° | 93° | 90° | 93° | 83–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 89° | 91° | 91° | 85° | 91° | 90° | 86° | 85–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 88° | 91° | 90° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 87–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 87° | 91° | 93° | 88° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 87–93° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.