Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Aug 7?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
12 days out, 4 models put New York's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 78° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 95° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.17 in of precipitation — rain.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.0°. ECMWF ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-26 | 79° | 78° | 88° | — | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 11d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 86° | 85° | — | 86° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 10d · 2026-07-28 | 87° | 86° | 74° | — | 84° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 9d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 85° | 89° | 82° | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 8d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 92° | 86° | 82° | 89° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 7d · 2026-07-31 | 92° | 92° | 77° | 84° | 95° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 93° | 85° | 85° | 93° | 86° | 91° | 85–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-02 | 88° | 92° | 88° | 80° | 96° | 87° | 94° | 80–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-03 | 88° | 90° | 85° | 85° | 93° | 85° | 87° | 85–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-04 | 88° | 90° | 86° | 87° | 93° | 86° | 91° | 86–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-05 | 88° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 93° | 85° | 92° | 85–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-06 | 89° | 91° | 85° | 90° | 93° | 87° | 93° | 85–93° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.