Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Aug 2?

New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

7 days out, 5 models put New York's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 76° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 82° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.43 in of precipitation — rain.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 2° cool.

7 days out the models said 76–84; it hit 82. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ICON ran 2°F cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
7d · 2026-07-26	82°	81°	84°	80°	76°	—	—	76–84°
6d · 2026-07-27	82°	80°	83°	80°	76°	84°	82°	76–84°
5d · 2026-07-28	80°	82°	81°	78°	77°	80°	86°	77–86°
4d · 2026-07-29	79°	81°	80°	79°	82°	79°	84°	79–84°
3d · 2026-07-30	83°	82°	82°	81°	82°	82°	80°	80–83°
2d · 2026-07-31	82°	82°	82°	82°	82°	79°	83°	79–83°
1d · 2026-08-01	83°	83°	82°	83°	82°	80°	82°	80–83°
actual								82°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.