Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Jul 30?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
4 days out, 7 models put New York's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 72° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 77° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.22 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-26 | 75° | 75° | 82° | 72° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 72–82° |
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 73° | 76° | 72° | 79° | 72° | 80° | 72–80° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 77° | 75° | 75° | 79° | 74° | 76° | 81° | 74–81° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 77° | 75° | 78° | 80° | 75° | 78° | 78° | 75–80° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.