Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sun Oct 18?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 70° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 72° against the NEW observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 80° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 78° | 83° | 76° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 60° | 76° | 81° | — | 73° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 64° | 69° | 75° | — | 74° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 84° | 71° | 71° | — | 81° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 60° | 79° | 63° | — | 81° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 71° | 79° | 67° | 69° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 72° | 64° | 77° | 66° | 65° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 78° | 70° | 77° | 74° | 72° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 72° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 78° | 74° | 72–78° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 71° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 70° | 70–74° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 70° | 71° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 70° | 68–72° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 70° | 70° | 69° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 69–71° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 70° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 70° | 71° | 69° | 69–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 69° | 70° | 68° | 74° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 68–74° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.