Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Thu Oct 15?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 70° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the NEW observations — fog.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 86° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 81–86° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 70° | 70° | 79° | — | 86° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 81° | 83° | 84° | — | 82° | — | — | 81–84° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 81° | 79° | — | 87° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 69° | 84° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 85° | 83° | 82° | — | 85° | — | — | 82–85° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 88° | 83° | 77° | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 86° | 90° | 83° | 86° | 89° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 86° | 86° | 82° | 84° | 86° | — | — | 82–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 82° | 88° | 81° | 84° | 88° | 85° | 85° | 81–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 82° | 87° | 83° | 84° | 86° | 84° | 83° | 82–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 82° | 88° | 81° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 81–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 87° | 83° | 86° | 87° | 85° | 83° | 83–87° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 83° | 88° | 83° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 84° | 83–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 83° | 87° | 83° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 83° | 83–87° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.