Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sun Oct 4?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 78° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the NEW observations, with 0.94 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 79° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 79–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 78° | 84° | 82° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 83° | 88° | 84° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 85° | 80° | 81° | — | 82° | — | — | 80–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 80° | 86° | 83° | — | 86° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 89° | 81° | — | 87° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 82° | 90° | 83° | 90° | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 83° | 84° | 79° | 88° | 86° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 85° | 82° | 84° | 87° | 81° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 85° | 86° | 78° | 82° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 78–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 81° | 80° | 81° | 83° | 75° | 82° | 81° | 75–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 86° | 79° | 79–86° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 81° | 77° | 77° | 81° | 83° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 81° | 81° | 78° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 78–81° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 80° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 79° | 82° | 76–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.