Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sun Sep 27?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 80° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 87° against the NEW observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 82° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 85° | 89° | 87° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 87° | 88° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 86° | 91° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 88° | 87° | 80° | — | 91° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 84° | 85° | 86° | — | 86° | — | — | 84–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 84° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 87° | — | — | 84–87° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 81° | 90° | 80° | 90° | 88° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 85° | 87° | 88° | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 85° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 85–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 86° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 92° | 86° | 85–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 85° | 87° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 89° | 89° | 85–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 85° | 87° | 87° | 89° | 90° | 89° | 87° | 85–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 85° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 85–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 86° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 86–89° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.