Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sat Sep 19?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
13 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 85° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 92° against the NEW observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 88° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 88° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 85° | 87° | — | 87° | — | — | 85–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 93° | 84° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 87° | 83° | — | 91° | — | — | 83–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 90° | 84° | — | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 90° | 84° | — | 87° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 92° | 82° | 88° | 91° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 88° | 90° | 83° | 88° | 91° | — | — | 83–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 90° | 82° | 89° | 91° | 92° | — | 82–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 88° | 86° | 82° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 82–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 88° | 89° | 89° | 92° | 93° | 96° | 93° | 88–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 88° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 94° | 94° | 92° | 88–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 87° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 93° | 94° | 91° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 87° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 87–92° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 87° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 91° | 87–93° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.