Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Fri Sep 18?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 81° to 94°; by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the NEW observations.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Forecast highs for Fri Sep 18 as each model's run approached it, recorded from the last archived model run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are omitted because they average the other models.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 91° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 91–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 88° | 81° | — | 94° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 82° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 90° | 89° | — | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 88° | 88° | — | 93° | — | — | 88–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 85° | 89° | 80° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 92° | 83° | 86° | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 91° | 86° | 88° | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 93° | 90° | 85° | 85–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 86° | 89° | 91° | 86° | 86–91° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 87° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 91° | 92° | 89° | 87–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 91° | 91° | 89° | 87–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 87° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 91° | 91° | 89° | 87–91° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 89° | 86–90° |
| actual | 91° |
What one day can show
A score for one day isn't very meaningful; a useful ranking needs many days of data. See which model has been most accurate in New Orleans, or in every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time they were recorded by The Spread; nothing is reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.