Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Wed Sep 2?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
11 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 82° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 93° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 86° | 93° | 82° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 88° | 94° | 86° | — | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 87° | 93° | 85° | — | 95° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 94° | 87° | 90° | 94° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 94° | 85° | 88° | 93° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 93° | 86° | 90° | 94° | 94° | — | 85–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 90° | 85° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 91° | 85–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 85° | 90° | 86° | 84° | 93° | 88° | 89° | 84–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 92° | 88° | 87° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 86–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 92° | 85° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 91° | 85–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 88° | 93° | 88° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 88–93° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 89° | 91° | 89° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 89–92° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.