Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Tue Sep 1?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
11 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 84° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 90° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-21 | 84° | 94° | 89° | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 87° | 93° | 87° | — | 92° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 87° | 90° | 86° | 89° | 93° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 93° | 86° | 86° | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 93° | 85° | 91° | 92° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 93° | 85° | 88° | 94° | 90° | 88° | 85–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 95° | 86° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 85° | 83–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 88° | 84° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 83–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 85° | 90° | 86° | 89° | 93° | 88° | 91° | 85–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 92° | 87° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 86–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 92° | 87° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 87–92° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.