Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Wed Aug 5?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
10 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 84° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 92° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-26 | 84° | 88° | 88° | — | 97° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 96° | 89° | 92° | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 95° | 90° | 89° | 95° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 93° | 89° | 88° | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 93° | 91° | 88° | 94° | 95° | 92° | 87–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 94° | 90° | 91° | 96° | 95° | 92° | 90–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 89° | 94° | 94° | 91° | 98° | 94° | 92° | 89–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 90° | 94° | 94° | 95° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 90–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 89° | 95° | 90° | 96° | 98° | 92° | 91° | 89–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 89° | 95° | 89° | 95° | 92° | 94° | 88° | 88–95° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.