Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Tue Aug 4?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put New Orleans's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 85° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 94° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 86° | 86° | 89° | 85° | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 94° | 90° | 89° | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 87° | 94° | 92° | 88° | 94° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 94° | 88° | 84° | 95° | 91° | 92° | 84–95° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 95° | 93° | 92° | 96° | 95° | 92° | 87–96° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 92° | 90–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 92° | 93° | 96° | 99° | 93° | 94° | 90–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 90° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 97° | 92° | 93° | 90–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 90° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 95° | 91° | 93° | 90–95° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.