Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sun Aug 2?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
7 days out, 5 models put New Orleans's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 81° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 87° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.7 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 87° | 84° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 87° | 85° | 91° | 93° | 85° | 84° | 84–93° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 92° | 89° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 88° | 85–92° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 91° | 88° | 88° | 94° | 87° | 85° | 85–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 89° | 89° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 89° | 87–95° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 87° | 92° | 92° | 93° | 98° | 92° | 94° | 87–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 87° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 87–92° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.