Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Oct 24?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Oct 24 high anywhere from 53° to 58°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 75° against the MSP observations — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-09 | — | 53° | — | — | 50° | — | — | 50–53° |
| 14d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 53° | 57° | — | 55° | — | — | 53–58° |
| 13d · 2026-10-11 | 51° | 58° | 46° | — | 52° | — | — | 46–58° |
| 12d · 2026-10-12 | — | 54° | 62° | — | 51° | — | — | 51–62° |
| 11d · 2026-10-13 | 56° | 52° | 51° | — | 50° | — | — | 50–56° |
| 10d · 2026-10-14 | 69° | 59° | 66° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-15 | 75° | 66° | 74° | 64° | 66° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-16 | 68° | 68° | 67° | 61° | 69° | — | — | 61–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-17 | 74° | 75° | 71° | 70° | 72° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-18 | 72° | 74° | 71° | 70° | 67° | 66° | 64° | 64–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-19 | 70° | 74° | 68° | 72° | 74° | 71° | 66° | 66–74° |
| 4d · 2026-10-20 | 73° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 75° | 70° | 67° | 67–75° |
| 3d · 2026-10-21 | 72° | 75° | 72° | 75° | 73° | 69° | 68° | 68–75° |
| 2d · 2026-10-22 | 72° | 75° | 71° | 75° | 74° | 72° | 71° | 71–75° |
| 1d · 2026-10-23 | 72° | 74° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 73° | 70° | 70–74° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.