Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Oct 19?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Oct 19 high anywhere from 52° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 66° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-04 | — | 52° | — | — | 50° | — | — | 50–52° |
| 14d · 2026-10-05 | 61° | 65° | 52° | — | 71° | — | — | 52–71° |
| 13d · 2026-10-06 | 71° | 61° | 54° | — | 43° | — | — | 43–71° |
| 12d · 2026-10-07 | 49° | 68° | 60° | — | 66° | — | — | 49–68° |
| 11d · 2026-10-08 | 58° | 62° | 60° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–62° |
| 10d · 2026-10-09 | 66° | 61° | 69° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-10 | 63° | 69° | 67° | 62° | 62° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 8d · 2026-10-11 | 62° | 66° | 68° | 66° | 70° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 7d · 2026-10-12 | — | 62° | 71° | 63° | 66° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-13 | 64° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 61° | 61–64° |
| 5d · 2026-10-14 | 65° | 63° | 64° | 60° | 66° | 61° | 64° | 60–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-15 | 64° | 64° | 62° | 61° | 65° | 61° | 63° | 61–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 66° | 62° | 61° | 67° | 60° | 63° | 60–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-17 | 64° | 65° | 62° | 61° | 67° | 62° | 62° | 61–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-18 | 64° | 63° | 62° | 67° | 66° | 64° | 61° | 61–67° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.