Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Oct 14?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 46° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 57°. The day verified at 55° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.1°. ECMWF ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 76° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 49° | 46° | 79° | — | 62° | — | — | 46–79° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 61° | 68° | 56° | — | 80° | — | — | 56–80° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 44° | 48° | 54° | — | 65° | — | — | 44–65° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 70° | 66° | 48° | — | 71° | — | — | 48–71° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 60° | 48° | 69° | — | 36° | — | — | 36–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 63° | 55° | 62° | 68° | 69° | — | — | 55–69° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 51° | 58° | 57° | 56° | 63° | — | — | 51–63° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 53° | 51° | 52° | 60° | 61° | — | — | 51–61° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 52° | 65° | 59° | 53° | 62° | 57° | 58° | 52–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 53° | 61° | 59° | 66° | 63° | 60° | 60° | 53–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 52° | 56° | 59° | 63° | 62° | 59° | 58° | 52–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 52° | 55° | 59° | 56° | 61° | 58° | 58° | 52–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 54° | 58° | 57° | 61° | 57° | 56° | 54–61° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 53° | 54° | 61° | 57° | 60° | 58° | 56° | 53–61° |
| actual | 55° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.