Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Oct 12?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 57° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 81° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 74° | — | — | 55° | — | — | 55–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 72° | 63° | 57° | — | 64° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 52° | 64° | 54° | — | 57° | — | — | 52–64° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 50° | 48° | 63° | — | 57° | — | — | 48–63° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 50° | 52° | 58° | — | 73° | — | — | 50–73° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 48° | 47° | 72° | — | 75° | — | — | 47–75° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 77° | 55° | 57° | 67° | — | — | 55–79° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 73° | 50° | 78° | 76° | 57° | — | — | 50–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 73° | 53° | 79° | 74° | 59° | — | — | 53–79° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 68° | 61° | 79° | 81° | 57° | 56° | — | 56–81° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 66° | 66° | 70° | 80° | 67° | 70° | 70° | 66–80° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 72° | 80° | 74° | 79° | 84° | 64° | 72° | 64–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 76° | 73° | 74° | 80° | 75° | 70° | 73° | 70–80° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 77° | 83° | 89° | 78° | 76° | 78° | 76–89° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 78° | 82° | 86° | 84° | 81° | 75° | 75–86° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.