Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Oct 11?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 58° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 90° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.8°. UKMO ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 67° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 67–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 58° | 67° | 58° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–67° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 60° | 53° | 69° | — | 74° | — | — | 53–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 51° | 72° | 70° | — | 68° | — | — | 51–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 46° | 68° | 70° | — | 74° | — | — | 46–74° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 57° | 60° | 76° | — | 86° | — | — | 57–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 74° | 77° | 79° | 55° | 83° | — | — | 55–83° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 83° | 83° | 78° | 75° | 82° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 76° | 80° | 81° | 82° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 84° | 73° | 79° | 85° | 72° | 73° | 68° | 68–85° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 83° | 77° | 84° | 86° | 79° | 76° | 71° | 71–86° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 82° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 80° | 80–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 83° | 85° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 83° | 79° | 79–87° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 84° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 84° | 80° | 80–87° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 85° | 84° | 84° | 87° | 87° | 88° | 81° | 81–88° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.