Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Oct 10?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 62° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 90° against the MSP observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.0°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 76° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 62° | 79° | 73° | — | 69° | — | — | 62–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 62° | 53° | 53° | — | 57° | — | — | 53–62° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 75° | 68° | 68° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 63° | 83° | 79° | — | 72° | — | — | 63–83° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 72° | 81° | 76° | — | 85° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 81° | 86° | 79° | 71° | 80° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 84° | 88° | 79° | 70° | 84° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 83° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 83° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 83° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 70° | 50° | 69° | 50–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 85° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 85° | 81° | 73° | 73–85° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 87° | 84° | 85° | 88° | 86° | 80° | 80–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 87° | 85° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 84° | 84–87° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 87° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 83° | 83–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 87° | 85° | 84° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 84° | 84–88° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.