Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Oct 7?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 46° to 69°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 74° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-22 | — | 62° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 62–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-23 | 62° | 46° | 69° | — | 68° | — | — | 46–69° |
| 13d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 59° | 53° | — | 62° | — | — | 53–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 63° | 67° | — | 68° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 72° | 70° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-27 | 73° | 64° | 70° | — | 49° | — | — | 49–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-28 | 70° | 68° | 75° | 74° | 61° | — | — | 61–75° |
| 8d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 75° | 73° | 75° | 71° | — | — | 71–75° |
| 7d · 2026-09-30 | 70° | 74° | 70° | 70° | 68° | — | — | 68–74° |
| 6d · 2026-10-01 | 75° | 74° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 69° | 69–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-02 | 71° | 76° | 69° | 72° | 73° | 71° | 70° | 69–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 75° | 68° | 68° | 73° | 68° | 66° | 66–75° |
| 3d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 69° | 71° | 69–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-05 | 74° | 73° | 72° | 70° | 74° | 71° | 73° | 70–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 72–74° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.