Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Oct 6?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 53° to 69°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 82° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 3.7°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 66° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 52° | 74° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 52–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 61° | 53° | 62° | — | 69° | — | — | 53–69° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 49° | 61° | — | 56° | — | — | 49–71° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 73° | 59° | 73° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 65° | 68° | — | 68° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 71° | 70° | 68° | 68° | — | — | 68–71° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 64° | 72° | 70° | 68° | 58° | — | — | 58–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 72° | 63° | 67° | 67° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 72° | 72° | 67° | 70° | 67° | 65° | 72° | 65–72° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 74° | 75° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 64° | 71° | 64–75° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 75° | 76° | 72° | 72° | 77° | 70° | 70° | 70–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 74° | 74–78° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 74° | 74° | 80° | 78° | 75° | 73° | 73–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 75° | 75° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 76° | 75–78° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.