Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Oct 4?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 62° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 69° against the MSP observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 53° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 53–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 68° | 71° | 62° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 70° | 58° | 63° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 58° | 54° | 68° | — | 66° | — | — | 54–68° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 56° | 60° | 52° | — | 54° | — | — | 52–60° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 61° | 61° | 64° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–64° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 70° | 54° | 61° | 66° | 69° | — | — | 54–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 67° | 58° | 68° | 67° | 58° | — | — | 58–68° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 60° | 62° | 64° | 66° | 69° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 64° | 63° | 61° | 62° | 61° | 60° | 61° | 60–64° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 65° | 58° | 62° | 64° | 60° | 60° | 60° | 58–65° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 63° | 65° | 62–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 67° | 66° | 64° | 63° | 67° | 64° | 64° | 63–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 65° | 66° | 63° | 64° | 67° | 64° | 66° | 63–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 67° | 64° | 65° | 69° | 68° | 65° | 65° | 64–69° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.