Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Oct 3?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 56° to 70°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 71° against the MSP observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.7°. ECMWF ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 59° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 59° | 58° | 56° | — | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 66° | 67° | 70° | — | 69° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 70° | 54° | 62° | — | 65° | — | — | 54–70° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 70° | 54° | 78° | — | 61° | — | — | 54–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 64° | 58° | 62° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–64° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 56° | 58° | 65° | 65° | 67° | — | — | 56–67° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 67° | 58° | 68° | 64° | 80° | — | — | 58–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 68° | 69° | 64° | 67° | 59° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 67° | 65° | 65° | 64° | 65° | 70° | 64–70° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 63° | 67° | 66° | 64° | 57° | 62° | 61° | 57–67° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 63° | 66° | 64° | 66° | 62° | 58° | 65° | 58–66° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 69° | 67° | 64° | 70° | 65° | 67° | 64–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 65° | 68° | 65° | 65° | 70° | 65° | 66° | 65–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 63° | 67° | 63° | 69° | 68° | 67° | 65° | 63–69° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.