Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Sep 30?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 68° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 72° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 2.1°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 59° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 69° | 68° | 75° | — | 70° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 79° | 68° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 75° | 59° | — | 70° | — | — | 59–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 54° | 54° | 67° | — | 60° | — | — | 54–67° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 56° | 64° | 68° | — | 69° | — | — | 56–69° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 64° | 61° | 67° | 66° | 72° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 71° | 64° | 67° | 64° | 71° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 71° | 69° | 60° | 66° | 67° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 68° | 71° | 70° | 67° | 70° | 66° | 67° | 66–71° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 73° | 70° | 72° | 70° | 74° | 76° | 67° | 67–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 69° | 71° | 72° | 70° | 75° | 74° | 71° | 69–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 71° | 67° | 71° | 68° | 66° | 76° | 70° | 66–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 72° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 72° | 72–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 74–79° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.