Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Sep 17?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 67° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 73° against the MSP observations, with 0.39 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 75° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 66° | 81° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 67° | 76° | 84° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 75° | 60° | 74° | — | 77° | — | — | 60–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 65° | 58° | 68° | — | 71° | — | — | 58–71° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 67° | 71° | 63° | — | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 72° | 57° | 69° | — | 69° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 67° | 77° | 71° | 80° | 72° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 68° | 63° | 66° | 66° | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 70° | 72° | 71° | 73° | 57° | 71° | — | 57–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 74° | 71° | 69° | 69° | 67° | 74° | 68° | 67–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 71° | 73° | 70° | 77° | 76° | 75° | 70–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 71° | 67° | 74° | 70° | 77° | 74° | 72° | 67–77° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 77° | 75° | 76° | 72–77° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 73° | 77° | 81° | 82° | 74° | 78° | 73–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 72° | 69° | 75° | 75° | 74° | 73° | 74° | 69–75° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.