Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Sep 14?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 61° to 65°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 61° against the MSP observations, with 0.2 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 66° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 73° | 63° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 61° | 65° | 64° | — | 64° | — | — | 61–65° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 70° | 55° | 93° | — | 85° | — | — | 55–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 74° | 88° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 73° | 78° | 79° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 73° | 92° | 72° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 73° | 82° | 63° | 71° | 70° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 64° | 60° | 69° | 65° | 68° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 67° | 65° | 62° | 58° | 58° | 61° | — | 58–67° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 64° | 66° | 70° | 73° | 73° | 69° | 78° | 64–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 64° | 64° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 70° | 73° | 64–73° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 62° | 63° | 64° | 68° | 68° | 60° | 69° | 60–69° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 60° | 66° | 68° | 63° | 65° | 59° | 67° | 59–68° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 62° | 67° | 67° | 65° | 67° | 64° | 68° | 62–68° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 61° | 63° | 67° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 67° | 61–67° |
| actual | 61° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.