Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Sep 12?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 68° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 76° against the MSP observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 79° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 79–80° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 69° | 92° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 69–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 68° | 79° | — | 81° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 59° | 66° | 64° | — | 66° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 76° | 71° | 79° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 78° | 87° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 81° | 82° | 73° | — | 81° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 79° | 59° | 86° | 83° | 81° | — | — | 59–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 73° | 86° | 72° | 71° | 84° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 71° | 78° | 74° | 68° | 75° | 67° | — | 67–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 71° | 75° | 70° | 70° | 78° | 70° | 74° | 70–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 72° | 69° | 74° | 75° | 78° | 72° | 76° | 69–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 72° | 74° | 73° | 73° | 78° | 73° | 74° | 72–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 71° | 74° | 72° | 73° | 81° | 72° | 74° | 71–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 72° | 73° | 73° | 78° | 75° | 72° | 75° | 72–78° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 73° | 71° | 73° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 71–78° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.