Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Sep 11?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 69° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 86° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 62° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 62–81° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 85° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 69° | 85° | 100° | — | 89° | — | — | 69–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 72° | 68° | — | 70° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 68° | 67° | 63° | — | 77° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 76° | 67° | 84° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 88° | 76° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 72° | 93° | 69° | 88° | 88° | — | — | 69–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 86° | 75° | 80° | 82° | 81° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 73° | 85° | 80° | 73° | 76° | — | 73–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 81° | 83° | 82° | 76° | 98° | 76° | 86° | 76–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 82° | 81° | 79° | 85° | 76° | 82° | 76–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 94° | 80° | 83° | 80–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 78° | 92° | 81° | 85° | 78–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 84° | 87° | 86° | 91° | 83° | 85° | 83–91° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 87° | 86° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 86° | 84–90° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.