Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Sep 8?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 64° to 77°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 83° against the MSP observations, with 0.33 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 81° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 81–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 72° | 78° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 76° | 64° | 74° | — | 77° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 61° | 68° | 68° | — | 66° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 77° | 76° | — | 81° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 75° | 86° | 87° | — | 91° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 86° | 88° | — | 91° | — | — | 83–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 80° | 79° | 82° | 94° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 75° | 86° | 92° | 58° | — | — | 58–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 87° | 84° | 93° | 86° | 89° | — | 81–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 83° | 84° | 96° | 80–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 75° | 82° | 86° | 97° | 84° | 80° | 75–97° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 79° | 74° | 88° | 84° | 89° | 78° | 82° | 74–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 80° | 78° | 87° | 78° | 93° | 80° | 81° | 78–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 79° | 77° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 80° | 78° | 77–87° |
| 0d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 75° | 79° | 84° | 83° | 79° | 81° | 75–84° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.