Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Sep 7?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 68° to 77°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 85° against the MSP observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 9° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 76° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 74° | 75° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 73° | 77° | 76° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 73° | 64° | 75° | — | 80° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 70° | 66° | 79° | — | 72° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 72° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 90° | 82° | — | 98° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 81° | 79° | 91° | 86° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 75° | 83° | 80° | 90° | 87° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 76° | 83° | — | 76–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 80° | 83° | 80° | 87° | 74° | 88° | 78° | 74–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 78° | 76° | 84° | 82° | 78° | 80° | 87° | 76–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 79° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 87° | 79° | 77° | 77–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 82° | 80° | 88° | 72° | 88° | 75° | 82° | 72–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 81° | 81° | 86° | 76° | 88° | 73° | 85° | 73–88° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 78° | 80° | 82° | 84° | 86° | 76° | 84° | 76–86° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.