Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Aug 30?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
8 days out, 5 models put Minneapolis's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 76° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 87° against the MSP observations — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 13° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 83° | 76° | 77° | 77° | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 85° | 83° | 73° | 93° | — | — | 73–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 81° | 81–87° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 87° | 82° | 86° | 94° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 82–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 98° | 82° | 84° | 82–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 86° | 82° | 85° | 100° | 87° | 85° | 82–100° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 83° | 86° | 91° | 91° | 87° | 88° | 80–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 86° | 82° | 90° | 100° | 87° | 90° | 82–100° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.