Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Aug 11?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 78° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 88° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 83° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 83–102° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 78° | 99° | — | 101° | — | — | 78–101° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 74° | 77° | 76° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 74° | 79° | 80° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 75° | 85° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 80° | 77° | 81° | — | 104° | — | — | 77–104° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 80° | 78° | 90° | 72° | 87° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 79° | 77° | 88° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 80° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 87° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 88° | 80° | 84° | 80–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 84° | 81° | 87° | 87° | 91° | 81° | 78° | 78–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 84° | 84° | 87° | 80° | 86° | 81° | 85° | 80–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 85° | 84° | 83° | 89° | 90° | 81° | 84° | 81–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 86° | 84° | 88° | 88° | 92° | 86° | 84° | 84–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 86° | 89° | 86° | 94° | 86° | 89° | 83° | 83–94° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.