Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Aug 10?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 79° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 87° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 79° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 82° | 86° | 79° | — | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 74° | 88° | — | 103° | — | — | 74–103° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 76° | 76° | 78° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 85° | 75° | 85° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 75° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 78° | 75° | 84° | 73° | 88° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 75° | 78° | 93° | 77° | 83° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 78° | 84° | 74° | 83° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 81° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 88° | 80° | 81° | 76–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 81° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 84° | 84° | 83° | 80–84° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 80° | 86° | 81° | 91° | 79° | 79° | 79–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 83° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 83° | 82–89° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 84° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 92° | 87° | 84° | 82–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 91° | 90° | 86° | 84° | 83–91° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.