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Was the forecast right for Miami on Mon Oct 12?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations

14 days out, 4 models put Miami's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 26° to 31°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 32° against the MIA observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-27 — 29° — — 31° — — 29–31°
14d · 2026-09-28 27° 29° 26° — 31° — — 26–31°
13d · 2026-09-29 31° 32° 30° — 33° — — 30–33°
12d · 2026-09-30 30° 30° 29° — 32° — — 29–32°
11d · 2026-10-01 29° 33° 30° — 32° — — 29–33°
10d · 2026-10-02 30° 33° 31° — 32° — — 30–33°
9d · 2026-10-03 31° 27° 31° 31° 33° — — 27–33°
8d · 2026-10-04 30° 32° 30° 32° 33° — — 30–33°
7d · 2026-10-05 30° 32° 31° 32° 33° — — 30–33°
6d · 2026-10-06 30° 33° 30° 31° 33° 33° — 30–33°
5d · 2026-10-07 30° 33° 31° 32° 33° 34° 32° 30–34°
4d · 2026-10-08 30° 32° 31° 32° 33° 33° 32° 30–33°
3d · 2026-10-09 30° 31° 30° 31° 33° 33° 32° 30–33°
2d · 2026-10-10 30° 31° 31° 32° 33° 32° 32° 30–33°
1d · 2026-10-11 30° 32° 31° 32° 34° 33° 33° 30–34°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.