The Spread

Was the forecast right for Miami on Wed Sep 9?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations

13 days out, 4 models put Miami's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 32° against the MIA observations, with 7.1 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 — 31° — — 34° — — 31–34°
14d · 2026-08-26 30° 31° — — 33° — — 30–33°
13d · 2026-08-27 31° 30° 30° — 34° — — 30–34°
12d · 2026-08-28 31° 33° 30° — 35° — — 30–35°
11d · 2026-08-29 31° 30° 31° — 33° — — 30–33°
10d · 2026-08-30 30° 33° 32° — 34° — — 30–34°
9d · 2026-08-31 29° 34° 28° — 37° — — 28–37°
8d · 2026-09-01 30° 33° 31° 32° 35° — — 30–35°
7d · 2026-09-02 31° 32° 31° 33° 34° — — 31–34°
6d · 2026-09-03 31° 33° 30° 32° 33° 32° — 30–33°
5d · 2026-09-04 31° 33° 31° 32° 34° 33° 33° 31–34°
4d · 2026-09-05 31° 33° 31° 32° 34° 33° 33° 31–34°
3d · 2026-09-06 31° 33° 31° 32° 34° 33° 33° 31–34°
2d · 2026-09-07 30° 32° 31° 33° 34° 33° 33° 30–34°
1d · 2026-09-08 30° 32° 31° 32° 34° 32° 31° 30–34°
0d · 2026-09-09 29° 32° 29° 30° 33° 32° 32° 29–33°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.