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Was the forecast right for Miami on Fri Aug 28?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations

7 days out, 5 models put Miami's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 30° to 34°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the MIA observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 3° cool.

7 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 34. GEM led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-21 30° 33° 31° 33° 34° — — 30–34°
6d · 2026-08-22 30° 33° 33° 33° 34° 32° 32° 30–34°
5d · 2026-08-23 31° 32° 31° 33° 34° 32° 34° 31–34°
4d · 2026-08-24 31° 33° 30° 33° 34° 32° 33° 30–34°
3d · 2026-08-25 31° 33° 31° 34° 34° 32° 33° 31–34°
2d · 2026-08-26 30° 33° 31° 33° 34° 32° 34° 30–34°
1d · 2026-08-27 31° 32° 31° 33° 33° 33° 33° 31–33°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.