The Spread

Was the forecast right for Miami on Thu Jul 30?

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Miami's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 33° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

3 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-07-27 33° 34° 34° 34° 35° 36° 36° 33–36°
2d · 2026-07-28 32° 35° 34° 35° 34° 35° 35° 32–35°
1d · 2026-07-29 32° 36° 34° 34° 35° 36° 35° 32–36°
0d · 2026-07-30 33° 36° 35° 34° 34° 35° 36° 33–36°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.