Was the forecast right for London on Sun Oct 25?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations
14 days out, 4 models put London's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 53° to 60°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 55°. The day verified at 57° against the EGLL observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.0°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 53° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 53–59° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 54° | 53° | 56° | — | 60° | — | — | 53–60° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | 52° | 55° | 57° | — | 61° | — | — | 52–61° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | — | 60° | 58° | — | 63° | — | — | 58–63° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 58° | 60° | 61° | — | 59° | — | — | 58–61° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 57° | 55° | 56° | — | 61° | — | — | 55–61° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 59° | 59° | 57° | 58° | 59° | — | — | 57–59° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 59° | 60° | 58° | 55° | 59° | — | — | 55–60° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 53° | 61° | 59° | 62° | 60° | — | — | 53–62° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 53° | 61° | 51° | 61° | 61° | 64° | 65° | 51–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 55° | 60° | 56° | 62° | 61° | 62° | 59° | 55–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 54° | 60° | 56° | 60° | 61° | 63° | 57° | 54–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 55° | 57° | 56° | 60° | 59° | 56° | 55° | 55–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 54° | 55° | 55° | 55° | 56° | 56° | 55° | 54–56° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 55° | 54° | 55° | 53° | 54° | 55° | 55° | 53–55° |
| actual | 57° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.