Was the forecast right for London on Thu Oct 15?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations
14 days out, 4 models put London's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 55° to 63°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 73° against the EGLL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.6°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 56° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 56–71° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 59° | 63° | 59° | — | 55° | — | — | 55–63° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 56° | 58° | 70° | — | 67° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 59° | 63° | 64° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 63° | 61° | 53° | — | 63° | — | — | 53–63° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 66° | 58° | 62° | — | 60° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 63° | 60° | 56° | 68° | 56° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 61° | 63° | 58° | 56° | 68° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 58° | 62° | 67° | 60° | — | — | 58–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 65° | 62° | 65° | 67° | 68° | 67° | 65° | 62–68° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 65° | 64° | 67° | 69° | 68° | 69° | 65° | 64–69° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 65° | 65° | 67° | 68° | 70° | 69° | 67° | 65–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | 66° | 66° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 69° | 66° | 66–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | — | 67° | 69° | 70° | 69° | 70° | 66° | 66–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 68° | 67° | 68° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 68° | 67–71° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.