Was the forecast right for London on Sun Oct 11?
London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EGLL observations
14 days out, 4 models put London's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 53° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 62° against the EGLL observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 62° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 53° | 60° | 66° | — | 58° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 65° | 56° | 60° | — | 58° | — | — | 56–65° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 55° | 56° | 60° | — | 60° | — | — | 55–60° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 51° | 57° | 60° | — | 59° | — | — | 51–60° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 57° | 57° | 56° | — | 60° | — | — | 56–60° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 59° | 56° | 57° | 58° | 60° | — | — | 56–60° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 62° | 56° | 58° | 57° | 61° | — | — | 56–62° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 59° | 61° | 64° | 59° | — | — | 59–64° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 63° | 60° | 60° | 62° | 59° | 61° | 62° | 59–63° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 60° | 57° | 59° | 59° | 58° | 59° | 57° | 57–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 58° | 57° | 59° | 58° | 60° | 60° | 57° | 57–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 56° | 58° | 60° | 58° | 59° | 57° | 56–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 57° | 58° | 62° | 58° | 59° | 60° | 57–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 58° | 59° | 60° | 61° | 60° | 59° | 58–61° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EGLL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.